On January 23rd, the Real Estate Economic Institute released their report on the Greater Tokyo Area Brand New Condominium Market Trend Report for the full year of 2024.
The Greater Tokyo Area (GTA) consists of the following prefectures; Tokyo, Kanagawa, Chiba and Saitama.
For this report, Tokyo prefecture was further separated into Tokyo 23 wards and Tokyo non-23 wards.
In 2024, the supply of new GTA condos totaled 23,003 units, a 14.4% decrease from 2023, marking the lowest level since 1973; a tangible impact to post-pandemic inflation paired with labor shortages Japan is experiencing.
Broken down by measured region:
Region | 2024 Total New Condos | % Change from 2023 |
Tokyo 23 ward | 8,275 | 30.5% down |
Tokyo non-23 ward | 2,041 | 10.0% down |
Kanagawa Pref. | 4,917 | 17.% down |
Chiba Pref. | 4,457 | 20.4% up |
Saitama Pref. | 3,313 | 9.3% up |
The GTA average price per condo was 78.2 million yen, a 3.5% decrease from 2023.
Average condo price broken down by region measured looks as follows:
Region | Avg. JPY Price / Condo | % Change from 2023 |
Tokyo 23 ward | 111.81 million | 2.6% down |
Tokyo non-23 ward | 58.9 million | 8.9% up |
Kanagawa Pref. | 64.32 million | 6.0% up |
Chiba Pref. | 56.89 million | 18.9% up |
Saitama Pref. | 55.42 million | 13.8% up |
The GTA average price per square meter was 1.177 million yen, a 4.0% decrease from the previous year.
The GTA initial contract rate for all of 2024 was 66.9%, a 3.4% decrease, falling below 70% for the first time in four years.
The initial contract rate is a key metric in real estate, representing the percentage of condominiums sold during the first phase of sales where buyers have signed a sales and purchase agreement. Analysts worldwide use a 70% threshold to gauge buyer demand. A rate above 70% indicates strong buyer interest, while a rate below 70% suggests weakening demand. This benchmark is crucial for understanding market health and is equally relevant in Japan.
The GTA new condo supply for 2025 is expected to increase by 13% to 26,000 units.
Further Reading:
Real Estate Economic Institute 2024 Greater Tokyo Area Brand New Condominium Market Trend Report (Japanese only; provides more historical context than outlined above)
Source:
R.E. Port News (Japanese only)
