New condo units released in the Greater Tokyo Area (GTA) fell sharply in January 2025, dropping 44.2% year-on-year (YoY) to 620 units, according to a report released by the Real Estate Economic Institute on February 19th.
While January typically sees a sharp drop in new condos released, the YoY drop, or the drop when January 2025 is compared to January 2024, is rather stark.
Chart taken from full report linked at bottom of article.
Broken down by regions measured in the report for January 2025:
Region | No. of New Condos Released | YoY % Change |
Tokyo 23 ward | 159 | 59.1% down |
Tokyo non-23 ward | 59 | 70.2% down |
Kanagawa Pref. | 240 | 12.4% down |
Chiba Pref. | 93 | 54.2% down |
Saitama Pref. | 69 | 43.8% up |
Saitama Prefecture was the only area to record an increase in new condos released, while Tokyo’s 23 wards accounted for 25.6% of the total.
The initial contract rate—the percentage of new first-phase condos sold within the first month of release—dropped to 58.5%, down 14.3 percentage points from the previous year.
Chart taken from full report linked at bottom of article.
Analysts globally consider 70% the threshold between strong and weak buyer demand, with a lower rate suggesting weaker demand, which could be due to economic uncertainty, affordability concerns, or shifting consumer preferences.
The average new condo price declined by 7.7% YoY to ¥73.43 million, while the average price per square meter fell 3.3% YoY to ¥1.116 million—both marking their first year-on-year drops in two months.
As of the end of January, the number of unsold units stood at 6,528, down by 286 from the previous month. Approximately 2,000 new units are expected to be released in February.
Further Reading:
January 2025 New Condo Trend Report for Greater Tokyo and Greater Osaka (Japanese only)
Source:
R.E. Port News (Japanese only)
