On December 19, the Real Estate Economic Institute released its latest analysis of the Greater Tokyo Area (GTA) new condominium market for November 2024.
The report highlights four key metrics:
Number of condo units launched
Initial contract rate
Average price per unit
Average price per square meter
The initial contract rate measures the percentage of newly launched condos that secure buyer commitments during their first sales phase.
Globally, a 70% initial contract rate is a widely recognized benchmark for evaluating buyer demand.
Rates above 70% indicate strong market interest, while those below suggests softening demand—an indicator closely monitored in Japan as well.
November 2024 Greater Tokyo New Condominium Release Trends
The number of units released for sale fell to 2,231, an 18.7% year-on-year (YoY) decrease and the first decline in two months.
All percentages below, unless otherwise stated, reflect YoY changes.
Broken down by region measured:
Region | New Condo Units | YoY % Change |
Tokyo 23 Ward | 705 | 31.5% down |
Tokyo Non-23 Ward | 357 | 20% down |
Kanagawa Pref. | 363 | 52.3% down |
Chiba Pref. | 235 | 24.2% down |
Saitama Pref. | 571 | 189.8% up |
Tokyo prefecture overall held 47.6% of the new condo inventory share.
The initial-month contract rate dropped to 61.5%, down 12.7 percentage points from the previous year.
Historical initial contract rate for GTA and Greater Osaka taken from report linked below and edited by Patience Realty.
Prices also softened:
Average unit price: ¥79.88 million, a 3.2% decrease.
Average price per square meter: ¥1.214 million, a 5.2% decline.
Both metrics saw their first drop in four months.
Despite the slowdown, two developments totaling 48 units in differing sales phases sold out on their first day of sales:
The second phase of “Mates Funabashi Gyoda Park” in Funabashi City, Chiba (12 units).
The first phase of “Sun Grande Higashi-Matsudo” in Matsudo City, Chiba (34 units).
At the end of November, unsold GTA new condo inventory reached 5,205 units, an increase of 376 units compared to October.
Looking ahead, approximately 6,000 units are expected to be released in December.
Further Reading:
Real Estate Economic Institute GTA New Condo Market Trends in November 2024 (Japanese only)
Source:
R.E. Port News (Japanese only)
