According to a Nikkei Shimbun article on February 27th, Japan recorded 720,988 births in 2024, down 5.0% year-on-year and the lowest since records began in 1899.
Preliminary figures include foreign nationals. Birth statistics exclusive to Japanese citizens and the total fertility rate will be published in June.
Common site seen in rural trains, this one from Nara, offering contrast to the packed commutes of Tokyo. Photo by Victoriano Izquierdo on Unsplash.
Excluding foreign nationals, births likely fell below 700,000. The ongoing decline adds pressure to the working-age population, increasing social insurance costs.
The birthrate decline is progressing 15 years ahead of government estimates. A 2023 projection had forecast births in the 720,000 range by 2039, but 2024 figures already match that level. Expectations of a post-pandemic rebound also fell short.
Deaths rose 1.8% to 1,618,684, and the natural population decrease—births minus deaths—hit a record 897,696, equivalent to the population of Wakayama Prefecture disappearing in a year.
Japan’s elderly accounted for 29.1% of the population in 2023, projected to reach 34.8% by 2040. Social security costs are expected to grow 28% by 2040, with healthcare and nursing care costs rising 48% and 71%, respectively. Continued birthrate declines could force higher insurance premiums.
Pension benefits may shrink further if the birthrate remains low. Government estimates suggest national pension payouts could drop 30% under current economic conditions.
With no sign of stabilization, the government sees the pre-2030s period as the last chance to reverse the trend. Japan ranks 29th among 38 OECD nations in labor productivity, making workforce efficiency and res-killing initiatives essential for sustaining economic growth.
Source:
Nikkei Shimbun (Japanese only; paywalled)
