On January 30th, Tokyo Kantei released its 2024 Condominium Data White Paper, revealing that new condominium supply in Japan fell significantly in 2024, reaching the lowest level since 1980.
The report is based on data from the company’s database, covering all residential units in condominium buildings across Japan, excluding renovated properties.
Nationwide and Regional Supply Trends
According to Tokyo Kantei, 2024 saw the total number of newly built condominium units nationwide decline by 12.0% year-on-year (YoY) to 70,227 units.
By region:
Greater Tokyo Area (GTA): 34,114 units (-10.2% YoY)
Greater Nagoya Area (Chubu): 5,996 units (-2.9% YoY)
Greater Osaka Area (Kinki): 15,522 units (-6.5% YoY)
While new supply increased in Hokkaido, Tohoku, and Northern Kanto, all other regions saw declines.
Kyushu experienced the sharpest drop, with Fukuoka Prefecture – Kyushu's primary market - seeing a 49.6% YoY decline to 2,793 units, contributing to an overall Kyushu decrease of 38.4% YoY.
Top Prefectural Insights
By prefecture, Tokyo recorded the highest number of new units at 17,386 (albeit -20.2% YoY), followed by:
Osaka Prefecture: 8,853 units (-9.8% YoY)
Kanagawa Prefecture: 8,743 units (-5.0% YoY)
A total of 26 prefectures saw a decline when compared to 2023.
Among those that saw an increase, Chiba Prefecture saw the most significant growth, rising 25.2% YoY to 4,524 units, while Hyogo Prefecture climbed 20.4% YoY to 3,992 units.
Average Condo Prices and Market Trends
Chart courtesy of Tokyo Kantei, translated by Patience Realty.
Despite the decline in new supply, prices remained high. In the GTA:
New condo prices: ¥78.3 million per unit (-0.8% YoY)
Price per tsubo (approx. 3.3 sqm): ¥4.135 million (-1.8% YoY)
Although both figures declined slightly year-on-year, they remained well above 2022 levels, indicating sustained high prices.
Whether the 2024 print becomes an ultimate plateau or a pit-stop along the way to higher prices, only time will tell.
Meanwhile, average prices for existing (pre-owned) condos rose with a minimal decline in average price per tsubo:
Average unit price: ¥43.69 million (+2.3% YoY)
Price per tsubo: ¥2.357 million (-0.1% YoY)
Tokyo Kantei noted that existing condos are serving as an alternative for buyers unable to afford new properties.
Long-Term Average Price Increases
Compared to 2014, nationwide average condo prices have surged:
New condos: +¥31.77 million per unit, +¥1.7 million per tsubo
Existing condos: +¥16.59 million per unit, +¥935,000 per tsubo
In the Kinki region compared to 2014:
New condos: ¥62.01 million per unit (+23.9%), ¥3.203 million per tsubo (+17.9%)
Pre-owned condos: ¥27.81 million per unit (+0.8%), ¥1.386 million per tsubo (-0.6%)
In the Chubu region compared to 2014:
New condos: ¥50.15 million per unit (+27.6% YoY), ¥2.625 million per tsubo (+8.2% YoY)
Pre-owned condos: ¥22.47 million per unit (-1.4%), ¥1.033 million per tsubo (-1.9% YoY)
The data underscores the ongoing affordability challenges in Japan’s condominium market, with supply at historic lows and prices remaining elevated. Recent increases in rental pricing further bolster affordability challenges.
Own a Tokyo condo? Even if you aren’t ready to sell, knowing what it could sell for is valuable knowledge. Click here and inquire for a free market appraisal.
Further Reading:
Tokyo Kantei 2024 Condominium Data White Paper (Japanese only)
Source:
R.E. Port News (Japanese only)
