Japan yen regaining haven status says Strategas Chris Verrone

On April 11th, Strategas partner Chris Verrone spoke with CNBC’s Fast Money about the yen’s recent strengthening against the US dollar and where it can go from here.

Key Takeaways:

• The Japanese yen has reached its highest level against the US dollar since September.

• This signals renewed investor confidence in the yen as a global safe-haven asset.

• The usual tight link between 10-year U.S. yields and the dollar/yen has broken down.

• While yields remain high, the yen is strengthening—indicating a possible market realignment.

• Analyst Chris Verrone expects yields to eventually fall in line with yen movements.

• July 10 marked a peak for both USD/JPY and tech stock outperformance vs. the S&P 500.

• This suggests the fading yen carry trade may be undermining tech’s market leadership.

• Verrone forecasts USD/JPY to fall to 130 from current levels near 144.

• He predicts continued appreciation of the yen over the coming year. 

• The decade-long yen carry trade is now experiencing a deeper, second wave of unwinding.

• The short-lived dip in 2024 was just the beginning, say analysts.

• The Bank of Japan may have no choice but to allow a stronger yen amid global disruptions.

More About Chris Verrone

Chris Verrone is a partner at Strategas and leads the firm’s Technical & Macro Research team. A frequent guest on CNBC and Bloomberg, he’s known for his data-driven market insights across equities, FX, rates, and commodities. He is consistently ranked among Wall Street’s top macro analysts and serves on Strategas’ Asset Allocation committee.