The Real Estate Economic Institute published their latest report on November 20, highlighting October's market trends for newly built condominiums in the Greater Tokyo Area (GTA).
The report separates metrics into the following four categories:
Initial Contract Rate
Number of condo units released for sale
Average condo price per unit
Average condo price per square meter
Initial contract rate measures the proportion of condos offered only in the first sales phase (not total units in the development) that resulted in signed sales agreements.
Worldwide, analysts often consider a 70% rate as a critical benchmark for assessing buyer demand.
Rates exceeding 70% indicate strong interest from buyers, while those falling below this level suggest a decline in demand.
Japan aligns with this global standard.
According to the report, the initial contract rate for October 2024 in the GTA reached 83.3%, an increase of 22.4% YoY, and the highest rate since November of 2015.
Historical initial contract rate for GTA and Greater Osaka taken from report linked at end of this article and edited by Patience Realty.
October 2024 Greater Tokyo New Condominium Inventory Trends
A total of 1,833 units were launched for sale in October, marking a 23.4% Year-on-Year (YoY) increase in new condo inventory.
Broken down by measured region:
Region | New Condo Units | % YoY Change |
Tokyo 23 ward | 816 | 70.4% up |
Tokyo non-23 ward | 53 | 58.6% down |
Kanagawa | 436 | 15.3% up |
Chiba | 428 | 43.6% up |
Saitama | 100 | 50.7% down |
Tokyo Prefecture accounted for 47.4% of total new condo sales in October.
Greater Tokyo New Condo October 2024 Price Trends
The average price per new condo unit rose in the GTA to ¥92.39 million (up 40.7% YoY).
The average price per square meter also climbed to ¥1.379 million (up 36.5% YoY).
Both YoY pricing metrics have now risen for three straight months.
One notable project, The Toyomi Tower Marine & Sky (Chuo Ward, Tokyo), achieved same-day sellout status during its Phase 1 launch. The 266-unit development reported an average of 4.6 applications per unit, with the highest rate reaching 18 applications per unit.
The institute projects approximately 2,500 units will be launched in November.
Further Reading:
October 2024 Greater Tokyo Area Initial Contract Rate (Japanese only)
Source:
R.E. Port News (Japanese only)
